GTA Shelter System - Population in Crisis

Homelessness, as defined by Canadian Observatory on Homelessness (COH, formerly the Canadian Homelessness Research Network):

“describes the situation of an individual, family or community without stable, permanent, appropriate housing, or the immediate prospect, means and ability of acquiring it. It is the result of systemic or societal barriers, a lack of affordable and appropriate housing, the individual/household’s financial, mental, cognitive, behavioural or physical challenges, and/or racism and discrimination.”¹

The negative social and economic consequences of homelessness in Canada are enormous. Homelessness has in fact flourished in past few decades, largely because of a lack of government leadership. The current shelter strategy that “warehouses” the poor, keeping them “out-of-sight” and “out-of-mind”, has failed miserably. These types of “band-aide” solutions simply do not address the root causes of homelessness.

“In some ways, it is simple: Canada can choose to invest an average of $2 billion annually to save $4 billion, and bolster urban economies, keep hundreds of thousands of Canadians healthy and productive as well as ensure productive futures. Or we can simply continue with the status quo and hope that things correct themselves, although after nearly 15 years since the original 1993 federal retreat from housing, Canada has succeeded mainly in increasing homelessness.”²

In fact, the current status quo is “actually really expensive”.³ It is far cheaper and more cost effective to provide homeless people with real housing, as apposed to “band-aide” solutions like shelters, hostels, warming centres and other like-minded temporary emergency services. Current evidence based research clearly “points to the fact that if we do things differently, we not only achieve better social outcomes, but we also save money.”³ Homelessness is estimated to cost the Canadian economy 7.05 billion dollars on an annual basis.

The chronic lack of safe and affordable housing, along with the growing economic divide between rich and poor, needs to be addressed by all levels of governments. The current scatter-shot approach to mitigating or eliminating homelessness and poverty, which are inextricably linked, has produced little in the way of real positive social/economic change.

“Not repeating past mistakes should at least be a first line of defence…[such as]curtailed social assistance…punitively low minimum wage rates…tax incentives that ignore renters and those on social assistance…cutbacks to social services and health.”²

About Toronto’s Shelter System:
Information in this report is based on a number of Shelter and Homelessness records that are freely available for download from the City of Toronto’s Open Data Portal. The following is a brief overview of the main datasets analyzed by our group, the Voices 4 Unhoused Liberation.
(i) Central Intake (CI)⁴ is the entry point for persons in need of emergency shelter services. People able to access CI’s 24/7 telephone line (416-338-4766 or 1-877-338-3398) can potentially receive a referral to an emergency shelter or other overnight accommodations. This dataset contains records of calls received by CI, and the outcomes of those calls (e.g. # unique individuals who contact CI, but were not matched to a shelter space each day). All of this information is collected by the city of Toronto’s Shelter Management Information System (SMIS). Callers not matched to an available space that suits their needs remain in the queue until they can be provided a referral, or until the closeout process at the end of the night at 4:00 AM. These daily call counts and outcomes (i.e. SMIS assigns codes for various outcomes) are collected and reported on a monthly basis (i.e. monthly updates are published on the 15^th day of the following month). CI uses 13 distinct wrap-up codes to classify the daily calls they receive. Unfortunately, these codes only provide information about the volume and types of calls, and do not contain information about the outcomes of said referrals.
(ii) Toronto Shelter System Flow (TSSF)⁵ data is compiled on a monthly basis by the city of Toronto’s Shelter Management Information System (SMIS). These records show the number of people entering (intake) or leaving (outtake) the shelter system. Some of the terms used in these records are listed in Table 1. Unfortunately, the current SMIS data is limited since it does not include any information about homeless people sleeping outdoors, or homeless people who do not use city funded services that are apart of SMIS. Although it is difficult to assess the exact number of homelessness people within the city, the most recent Street Needs Assessment (2021) suggests that ~18% of city’s homeless population are not included in the current data. This is likely an under estimate of its “true” size given the severity of the current housing and homelessness problems within the region.⁵
(iii) Daily Shelter Overnight Service Occupancy (DSOSO)⁶ records maintained by SMIS is compiled on a daily basis. It records the number of people who use overnight shelters and allied services within the GTA. The data includes the identify of program operators, as well as the locations and nature of the services they provide.⁶
    Unfortunately there is little information about the amount of funding the city receives and allocates for these different homeless programs and services. The DSOSO dataset only mentions Funding Capacity within the context of the “number of beds or rooms that a program is intended [funded] to provide”.⁶ Although there may be a number of reasons why beds or rooms may be temporarily out of service (e.g. repairs, renovations, outbreaks, or pest control) they are not reported. These records also mention Actual Capacity, which refers to the “number of beds or rooms in service and showing as available for occupancy in the SMIS at time of reporting.” This latter measure is touted as being “a more effective capacity measure to assess program occupancy rates”. However, the number of unavailable rooms or beds (Note: # UNAVAILABLE BEDS = Capacity Funding Bed - Capacity Actual Bed) is arguable a more reliable measure of the number of rooms/beds the currently funded system can and should provide and fill on a daily basis. Unfortunately there appears to be very little oversight of service providers with regards to reducing or eliminating bed/room “unavailability”, and the draconian nature of service restrictions they impose on their clients.

Toronto Central Intake Call Data

Figure 1. Toronto Central Intake Daily Call Totals. The plotted data, which was taken from the “Central Intake Call Wrap-Up Codes” dataset, provides daily counts of calls answered by Central Intake Centre (CIC). The calls are classified by a caseworker using 13 distinct “wrap-up” codes (i.e. describes general nature of the call). These daily SMIS records are manually updated on a monthly basis. Although the “wrap-up” codes provide information related to the volume and type of calls received, it does not track requests made by unique individuals, nor the ultimate outcomes of referrals.⁴ Looking at the plotted data it is evident that there has been an overall increase in the number of calls to CIC. Unfortunately it appears that few callers were able to successfully obtain a referral for an overnight sleeping or resting space (colour coded). This low success rate has been particularly pronounced within the last 10 months.

Figure 2. Toronto Central Intake Total Numbers of Daily Unmatched Callers. The plotted data, taken from the monthly updated “Central Intake Service Queue” dataset, provides daily counts of unique individuals who contacted the CIC to access an emergency shelter, but were not matched to a shelter space. The SMIS service queue caller data details when a bed was requested for a caller seeking a shelter space. An unmatched caller (i.e. person not given a referral to an available space that suits their needs at the time of their call) remains in the queue until either they were are provided a referral, or until “close-out” (i.e. 4:00 AM, end of the night). The data only contains three features, namely: (i) date of the call, (ii) total number of Unmatched Callers, and (iii) whether the caller phoned once (i.e. Single Caller) or multiple times (i.e. Repeat Caller).⁴ Looking at the plotted data it is evident that there has been a steady increase in the number of callers not receiving a referral to an overnight sleeping space or safe shelter despite repeated calls.

Toronto Shelter System Flow (TSSF) Data

Figure 3. Toronto Shelter System Flow Data Total Numbers. This plot shows the total number of “actively” homeless people according to SMIS records. The TSSF data is only updated on a monthly basis (e.g. recent March 2024 data was updated on April 15^th). The data is only based on those people who have used overnight services that are monitored by SMIS (i.e. excludes people who sleep outdoors or who use non-SMIS homeless services). The changing width of the plotted line reflects the changing dynamics of the homeless population over this 6 year period. Clearly the number of homeless people remains high within the GTA. The recent all time high of 11,173 “actively” homeless people for Feb/2024 is currently ebbing somewhat (10,833 Mar/2024). This is perhaps due to the warmer weather as many homeless people often escape the shelter system for safer environs. Although far from complete the TSSF records appear (for some unknown reason) to be more extensive than the DSOSO records since the latter dataset reports fewer homeless people (i.e. 9,748 for Mar 1^st, 9,653 for Mar 15^th, and 9,687 for Mar 31^st 2024). This discrepancy in the number of homeless people is a bit disconcerting given that both datasets are reportedly based on the same SMIS records.

Figure 4. Demographics of TSSF dataset. The above plot shows the number of “actively” homeless people classified as either (i) Chronically homeless, (ii) a member of a homeless Family, (iii) Indigenous, (iv) a non-refugee, (v) a refugee, (vi) a single adult (> 24 yrs), or a (vii) Youth (16-24 yrs) who is not a member of an homeless family. Like Figure 3, the changing width of the plotted line reflects the changing dynamics of each homeless group. Currently (Mar 2024) the largest homeless demographic group is single adults (Note: 7266 single adults, or 67.1%, compared to 2555 family members, or 23.6%, and 1012 youths, or 9.3%). Adults (> 24 yrs) also make up ~77% (4835/6288) of the chronic homeless population. The homeless refugee population (5805, or 53.6%) slightly out numbers the homeless non-refugee population (5028, or 46.4%).

Daily Shelter Overnight Service Occupancy (DSOSO) Data

Figure 5. Total Shelter Population within the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). The above plot shows the total number of daily shelter users for the period spanning 2021-01-01 to 2024-04-21. The number of shelter occupants have increased by more than 63% during this time.

Figure 6. Shelter Population per GTA region. The plot shows the total number of shelter users within different parts of the GTA (i.e. Toronto, North York, Etobicoke, Scarborough, Vaughan) for the past ~40 months (2021-01-01 to 2024-04-21). The data reveals that the vast majority of shelter users are currently being housed within Toronto and North York (see Bar graph in Figure 7).

Figure 7. Current Shelter Populations per GTA Region. This bar graph shows the current (2024-04-10) number of shelter occupants within each of the designated GTA regions. Toronto (68.5%) and North York (18.3%) shelter the majority of homeless people, while Scarborough (8.7%), Etobicoke (3.9%), and Vaughan (0.6%) collectively house less than 14% of the homeless population.

Figure 8. Homeless Demographics within the GTA Region. The above graph looks at some homeless demographics within the GTA. The number of individuals within each of the designated homeless groups (i.e. men, women, families, Youth and Mixed adults) have rapidly increased over the last 3 years. Also, the size of the Mixed adult population has fluctuated quite dramatically over the past two years. Possible reasons for this may be due to the fluctuating number of designated “mixed adult” shelter spaces. For example, some service providers, like Homes First, are unilaterally transitioning some of their shelter spaces (e.g. Delta Hotel Shelter, Scarborough) to a select homeless population (i.e. refugee only) at the expense of other homeless people (i.e. non-refugees mixed adult population). Note that the fate of the Delta non-refugee homeless population has largely being determined by Ward 22 councillor Nick Mantas, who’s NIMBY motion to rid the Delta shelter of non-refugee residents was passed by Toronto City Council meeting back in Feb 2024.

Figure 9. Homeless Population Program Model. The above graph looks at the designated Emergency and Transitional shelter programs within the GTA. According to City of Toronto’s Housing + Homelessness Service Glossary (2019)⁷ the Emergency Shelter Program constitutes a homeless shelter program that individuals and families can access without a referral. By contrast a Transitional Shelter Program constitutes a homeless program that individuals and families can access only with a referral. The plotted DSOSO data clearly shows that only ~1 out of every 10 homeless individuals have been able to access a referral. This poor referral rate is also evident from the data plotted in Figure 1 and Figure 2.

Figure 10. Homeless Overnight Service Types within the GTA. Homeless individuals within the GTA can access different types of overnight services, including: (i) Shelters, (ii) 24-Hour Respites, (iii) Motels/Hotels, (iv) Interim Housing, (v) Warming Centres, (vi) 24-Hour Women’s Drop-ins, and (vii) Isolation/Recovery Sites. There are a few other Service Types offered, but they are ill-defined and accessed by very few people. As of April 21^st 2024 the vast majority of Service Types are emergency type Shelter (4845, or 48.9%) and Motel/Hotel (4461, or 45%) services. Unfortunately, services that help homeless people transition to safer and more affordable permanent housing are largely non-existent within the Toronto Shelter system.

Figure 11. Homeless Program Area within the GTA. Homeless programs can be categorized as either: (i) Base Shelter, (ii) Base Program - Refugee, (iii) Temporary Refugee Response, (iv) COVID-19 Response, or (v) Winter Response. Generally they can be classified as either regular (i.e. year-round) or temporary programs. The rising numbers of homeless refugees and along with the long-term health and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic appears to be driving the growing homeless population within the GTA. Even the cyclic Winter Response program, which normally spikes during the cold season, experienced a considerable rise in the number of homeless people during the last winter season.

Figure 12 & 13. Homes First’s Delta Hotel Shelter. These two graphs show the number of rooms at the Delta Hotel Shelter that are either occupied (Figure 12) or unoccupied (Figure 13). Although the number of occupants have been steadily decreasing between Feb 5^th to April 4^th, the recent influx of refugees has rapidly corrected these falling numbers. The rapid changes in the number of people sheltered at the Delta Hotel over the past 2 months is also reflected in the number of unavailable rooms at the Delta shelter (Figure 13). The fitted Loess (LOcal regrESSion) curve is fairly well defined (i.e. residuals are fairly constant over the chosen range of x values), which suggests “real” trends in the data (e.g. rapid increase in # unavailable rooms between Feb 5th and April 4th, followed by a quick reversal of this trend between April 4th to present). Nevertheless, it is important to note that the overnight Delta Hotel Shelter (Program ID 16011) supervised by Homes First is, according to DSOSO records, a designated mixed adult (Sector) shelter that falls under the emergency COVID-19 Program. So it is by definition not a refugee-only shelter space. According to Homes First, which runs many other additional shelter and supportive housing sites, their mission is to “develop and provide affordable, stable housing and support services to break the cycle of homelessness for people with the fewest housing options”. However, despite the continuing rise in the number of homeless persons in Toronto (Fig. 3,5,8,9), as well as the recent influx of Federal dollars ($162 million) to support the Toronto shelter system, Homes First has unilaterally decided to transition the Delta Hotel Shelter to a refugee only space (i.e. no consultations with residents). Apparently, in accordance with the wishes of local Ward 22 councillor Nick Mantas, the shelter is actively trying to move or evict people from the safety of the shelter. Many have already faced punitive “service restrictions” without any appeals process. Even the recent updated appeals process typically results in the eviction of the client at the end of the restriction period. It is important to note that during the time it takes to resolve the appeal process the client is removed from the shelter and forced to find accommodations on their own (i.e. left homeless). Homes First’s exclusion of the Delta residents from any decision making process, one that directly impacts their immediate and future well being, is both imprudent and overtly punitive in nature. Many residents are afraid that they will be forced to move back onto the streets, or to some unsafe open congregate shelter space. The non-transparent nature of this decision making process has only heightened the homeless residents’ fears, anxiety and distrust of Homes First. This situation has only been exacerbated by the lack of available housing workers who are suppose to be working with the Delta’s homeless residents. The current drive to transition the Delta hotel to a refugee-only shelter, at the expense of the non-refugee homeless population, is perplexing given the recent influx of Federal dollars into the Toronto shelter system.

References

1. Gaetz, S.; Barr, C.; Friesen, A.; Harris, B.; Hill, C.; Kovacs-Burns, K.; Pauly, B.; Pearce, B.; Turner, A.; Marsolais, A. (2012). Canadian Definition of Homelessness. Toronto: Canadian Observatory on Homelessness Press. www.homelesshub.ca/homelessdefinition

2. Laird, Gordon (2007). SHELTER - Homelessness in a growth economy: Canada’s 21st century paradox. Report for the Sheldon Chumir Foundation for Ethics in Leadership.

3. Gaetz, Stephen (2012). The Real Cost of Homelessness: Can We Save Money by Doing the Right Thing? Toronto: Canadian Homelessness Research Network Press.

4. City of Toronto (2024). Central Intake Calls (CIC).

5. City of Toronto (2024). Toronto Shelter System Flow (TSSF).

6. City of Toronto (2024). Daily Shelter and Overnight Service Occupancy and Capacity (DSOSO).

7. City of Toronto - Housing Stability Service System Overview (2019). Housing + Homelessness Service Glossary.